Featured August 25, 2011

Analyst Conrad Lyon comments on Dunkin’ Donuts (DNKN)

Will Dunkin' Donuts Finally Grace L.A.?

By Lauren Lloyd in Food on August 24, 2011 12:40 PM


An overwhelming number of L.A. residents are transplants, and many Angelenos hail from the east coast. One doughnut eatery whose fried pastries and coffee are craved by a large portion of the western United States - Dunkin' Donuts - has failed to make an appearance in Los Angeles. But soon-ish withdrawn diners may hold a glazed, jelly-filled wonder in their shaking hands. Or a hearty, ooey gooey breakfast sammie. Or a steaming cup of coffee.

The coveted doughnuts-and-coffee chain is planning a U.S. expansion, and we have our fingers, toes and eyes crossed that at least one store is gifted to the City of Angels. The growth plan, according to Bloomberg, includes opening 250 U.S. locations per year in both 2011 and 2012. Over the next two decades, Dunkin' Donuts aims to more than double its U.S. presence to 15,000 stores. If the Southland doesn't see at least one of those stores, heads will roll. Moscow houses between 10-20 stores; Los Angeles can surely handle at least a handful.

Investors are “betting that it’s going to grow a lot faster than it has been growing,” said Darren Fabric, managing director at Chicago-based IPOX Schuster LLC, which oversees about $2.5 billion and bought Dunkin’ shares for a managed mutual fund. “They have lofty growth plans.”

Fostering a strong cult following in other parts of our great nation deems a difficult feat for the chain, but they're brewing ideas.

Dunkin’ has “really not been proven west of the Mississippi, but it does have a cult-like following in the Northeast,” said Christopher O’Cull, a Nashville, Tennessee- based analyst at researcher SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. “The question is: can that be replicated?”

Conrad Lyon, an L.A.-based analyst at B. Riley & Co., recognizes that westerners may prefer smaller chains and mom-and-pop cafes.

“You do have a different kind of customer out West that likes the more distinctive, different type of product,” said Lyon.

Nima Samadi, an L.A.-based analyst at market researcher IBISWorld Inc., seconds Lyon's cult following doubt.

“In California, there is a bit of an anti-corporate streak," she said.

L.A., talk to us. Should we be so blessed with a Dunkin' Donutery, will you indulge?

Full Article: http://laist.com/2011/08/24/will_dunkin_donuts_finally_grace_los_angeles.php